Thursday, June 21, 2012

Scenarios for the UFL title race

THREE points. That's what separates the top three teams in the UFL--Global (38), Kaya (36)
and Loyola (35) and all three have a chance to win the title, with Global as the comfortbale

For Global to win the UFL, it has to earn at least four points in each last two matches, because if Kaya wins their last two matches, both teams will be tied at 42, with global a healthy 17 goals ahead on goal difference.

For Loyola to sneak into the title race, it has, of course, to aim for a sweep of its last two matches but it is even possible that it could win the title with a win and a draw, provided, of course, Global and Kaya lose one of their final two games.

So, here's the scenarios:

For Kaya to win. Earn the maximum, six points in two matches to get to 42 and hope Global lose at least one of its two matches.  Six points for Kaya and a draw and a win for Global means both teams will be tied at 42 points and at +28, Global is 17 goals ahead of Kaya on goal difference.

Can Kaya earn six points in two games? I believe they can. They beat Pasargad, 3-0, and drew Stallions, 1-1, in the first round. Yes, Pasargad is a different team and the Stallions are always capable of beating Kaya, but when you're chasing the title, that factor gives the team a little edge.

Kaya can still win the title with 3 points in the last two games, provided Global loses its last two matches.

For Loyola to win. At 35 points, Loyola has to earn the full 6 points to get ahead of Global but
the Sparks can still win it with four, provided, Kaya doesn't earn four points in its last two matches and Global only earns one point.

If Kaya draws its last two matches, it will be at 38 points, the same output if Loyola only earns four points, and if Global only earns one point in its last two matches. And at + 37, Loyola has the healthiest goal difference.

Global, of course, has the best chance since its fate is in its hand and it doesn't have to rely on other results to win the title. Two wins will assure them the title, even a win and a draw.  

Forty-two points is the maximum that Kaya will earn, and at 38, Global only needs four. With a greater goal difference, Global will bag the crown.

Here are the remaining games and the results of the first-round matches:

Global  vs. Loyola June 26 (3-4) 
Global vs. PAF June 23 (5-3)

Kaya vs. Pasargad June 21 (3-0)
Kaya vs. Stallions June 26 (1-1)

Loyola vs. Nomads June 23 (5-0)
Loyola vs. Global June 26 (4-3)

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