Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Interesting UFL Cup scenario: Group G to determine Global's fate

GLOBAL Fc fans who are worried that their team won't get to defend its title in the UFL Cup and gets booted out in the elimination round need to watch for the results of today's Group G game between Garuda and Manhur.

Now why would a game between two winless teams (Garuda, 0-2) and Manhur (0-1) matter?

Actually, there are five games that may affect Global's destiny, Loyola vs. Agila in Group B on Oct. 27, Pachanga vs. Cebu on Oct. 29, Lions vs. Baguio on Oct. 29, Garuda vs. Manhur on Oct. 26 and depending on that result, Manhur vs. S. Garden on Oct. 30.

But we should be realistic here and I guess everybody sort of expects how Pachanga vs. Cebu will end--I hope everybody gets proven wrong--and how Loyola vs. Agila will end too?

At four points, a Pachanga loss to Cebu means Global advances outright as the second qualifier in the Group of Death. A Loyola loss to Agila in Group B means all three teams finish with six points and the first wild card will surely go to the group. But can Agila, which lost to the Socceroos, beat Loyola? Baguio in Group A also has two games at hand, but on Oct. 29, they will face the Lions, a team that is chasing a spot in the KO stage. The Lions lost to the Nomads, 2-0, and the Nomads blanked Baguio, 9-0.

So, let's assume Global will finish third place, with four points and a plus two goal difference. So far, it is the best-ranked third placer,

Now, back to Manhur vs. Garuda.

Manhur lost to the Army, 4-0, but on Oct. 26, it will be taking on a Garuda team that lost to the same squad, 11-0.

If Manhur wins, it earns three points, putting it at a tie with Group G second placer Sunken Garden. Manhur only needs to draw Sunken Garden to make it as the second qualifier, since it has a healthier goal difference. If Manhur loses to Garuda, Global advances as the best third-placer. The next best, will still depend on the Oct. 30 match between Sunken Garden and Manhur.

Granted Manhur wins against Garuda on Oct. 26, its match on against Sunken Garden on Oct 30, will be crucial. A draw between Sunken Garden and Manhur puts them both at four points. (Update Oct. 26, Manhur has won against Sunken Garden)

One of them will be the second placer, the other, the next best third place team as no other third-place team aside from Global will finish with four points. That means, Laos, at 3 points, will be eliminated. No other third place team has a chance to finish with four points, unless Agila will draw Loyola and we will all draw the winning Lotto combination.

Now, if Garuda vs. Sunken Garden ends in a win, the winning team bags the second qualifier spot in the group, the loser is eliminated unless it has a better goal difference than Laos, which is at plus 1.


Anonymous said...

What happens if Pasargad loses to Archers (by a one or two goal margin) but still finishes second in its group on 3 points (due to superior GD to both Forza and Dolphins)? You will then have a team that finished second in its group but with a lower point output or lower GD than Global or a team out of Group G (be it Manhur or SGU).

Mike said...

Two teams from each group automatically qualifies. If Pasargad loses by less than four, it will be the second qualifier in Group F but will be at No. 14 in the KO Stage and will face the No. 3 team.

If that happens, the wild cards will not come from Group F since Global (4 points) has a better record and Laos FC (3 points, plus 1) has a better goal difference than Forza and Dolphins.

If Pasargad loses by more than four goals, Forza takes the second spot in Group F (and will still be No. 14 in the rankings). Pasargad will be eliminated

Anonymous said...

Mike, I think you may be mistaken. The rules state that the teams will ranked 1-16 and 1 to 7 (top of each group) and then 8-14 (second in each group) and then 15-16 (best third placers). You can double check this with the UFL Cup Technical Committee but the rules state that the 16 teams will be ranked from 1-16 regardless of group rank (1st, 2nd or 3rd place) according to the criterion set out in the rules (points, GD, goals for, etc.). This means that Pasargad, should it finish on 3 points, will qualify for the round of 16 but be ranked lower than Global and Manhur/SGU or any team that finishes on 4 points.

Mike said...

Thanks for pointing that out. I didn't know about the seedings. I assumed the top 14 will be for the automatic qualifiers and the No. 15 and 16 for the wild cards.

If that's the rule, the scenario that would put Pasargad in would mean it would have to deal with the No. 1 team.

I assumed the rankings of 1 to 16 would be on points (plus the tie breakers), regardless of their rank in the group.

Thanks for clarifying.

ceburoo said...

Mike why are you doing this to me. It must be a slow week for sports. I died and thousand deaths at Nomads last night when Laos had several chances to score in the dying minutes of the game after Navy had missed a penalty to make the game safe. So i had a good sleep last night and now I open up here and Im still teetering on the brink. OMG. Thanks mate no need for enemies when I have a friend like you hahaha
Also in respect to a post I made yesterday I must apologize. I said that the game of Loyola and Agila should have been played as the first game not the last in that bracket. It actually was scheduled as the first game but due to the rain cancellation it was rescheduled and became the last game. So to the UFL my apologies for that blunder on my behalf.

jonny said...

I dont think Group G can determine Global Fc fate, only group A and B in theory.
How can a third placed team in Group G get more than 4 points and + 2 in goal difference (Global FC)? Manhur can finish number 2 if beating Garuda and if they draw Sunken Garden they will both have 4 points , but Sunken Garden will have -7 in goal difference if they are third placed team ?
In theory both third placed team in group A and B can advance , but I would say that Global Fc is 99,99 % qualified.

Mike said...

If Garuda beats Manhur today, Global FC is a sure entry.

I disregarded Group A and B scenarios because matches there are a sure thing.

Anonymous said...

Good luck to Global fans! ManHur has a high chance of winning today's game. :)

Anonymous said...

Manhur wins 2-1